Sub Arctic Birds, January 16th, 2020

Let’s start with a little gold from Bob Wiggins :

Dan Kennelly – passed on that some shops Trans Am Pipe deals with are a bit slow and things feel a bit scary. A couple of reputable machine shops (one in business for 26 years) went out of business to start the year. When things get busier those absences will have an impact. They tend to be specialized, so they’ll be missed, and likely cause project delays.

Keystone construction work will start, which should lead to better times, but projects in Canada continue to be subject to both internal and external forces putting up obstacles. The latest frustration is the UN not minding its own bloody business and telling Canada that Indigenous rights trump everything else. We’re bad boys and girls and should be ashamed of wanting to develop and sell our responsibly produced resources.

Don Davis – testified that the Canmore real estate market is defying Alberta’s gravity. Don went out to see his son’s house and found it a little tough to reconcile some of the prices with the value acquired – especially right in Canmore. Once you’re actually outside of town things are marginally better. His son was being quoted mortgage rates by RBC like 3.1 – Don figures he should be able to get 2.5. Andy Lockhart chimed in with the age-old wisdom that variable-rate mortgages pay off over time if the variance of a point or two won’t do you in from month to month.

Other Canmore news – talk of the town was a couple of Vegas folks who got caught on the river and needed rescue help. They went walking out on the ice. It’s Canada – it’s frozen right? Well, the ice broke and they wound up stuck on an ice island. Rescue crew gave ’em a break because they were visiting from Vegas. ( *ed note – I think they should have asked them if they were Trump supporters first. If they were, I woulda wished ’em luck and told them not to mind the wolves. )

Ross Mikkelsen – was in Ontario making sure the employees there hadn’t burnt his store down. Says in Ontario, they’re worried about winter arriving. Sometime. Then it rained again.

Ross also noted that the City of Calgary and the Feds were patting each other on the back for a land swap including the lot behind the north store to build low-income housing. Ross noted that the homeless have been using that lot for years. More detail at this link: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-city-affordable-housing-1.5427894

Don Doolan – had his eye on the Supreme Court case re: the pipeline. Until the verdict came down ( https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-bc-reference-trans-mountain-1.5429423 ), the thought had crossed his mind that the Feds might be kissing 4.5 billion dollars buh-bye.

Big excitement (other than country-shattering/building Supreme court decisions) was when he happened to be at the Foothills prostrate clinic doing yoga and found himself in the midst of a search for escaped psych patient who got away. How, no one knew. There was police everywhere, short-ish lockdown, but he assumes all ended well since he’s heard nothing more about it.

Paul Boucher – noted he appreciates the features of his Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software, Nimble. For a solopreneur like him, having a solution that helps to semi-automate communication and follow up with clients has led to a couple of pieces of business closing. You can take a look at what it does here: https://www.nimble.com/.

Paul also found a funny article that laid out “The Real Meanings Behind 28 Common Phrases”. The whole article is here – one of the best is below: https://twistedsifter.com/2020/01/real-meanings-behind-common-phrases-compilation/

Brad Pachal – was telling us how sales happen for his business. It happens mostly when clients come over to his home go over options and do budgets. They’re able to survey the quality of his work first hand since pretty much every piece of his home has at one or another found itself worked over by his skilled hands and craft/artistic vision. The sight of the finished outcome tends to stimulate an almost Pavlovian “I Want That!” response. One of the nicest compliments Brad has received from a client who’s been through is that they consider him more of an artisan than “just” a contractor.

Brad also passed on thanks to Dave Hicks for work done.

The last thing Brad talked about was getting a call from his wife about the temperature in the house having dropped to 16 degrees and the furnace not working. Brad being Brad, he went about methodically figuring out the problem and eventually arrived at the programmable thermostat. A change of batteries helped to make sure the signals were getting to the furnace. So, check those batteries from time to time. Although the battery meter on the device said things were shipshape, Brad tested the batteries and saw they were low. Another tip, he keeps an old school “hand-powered” thermostat on hand in case the programmable one goes on the fritz.

It prompted a good conversation and contributions from various people among them: if your furnace vents out underneath an overhang, keep an eye out for things like freezing soffits and ice or frost accumulation which could lead to the same in attics. Eventually, that stuff has to melt somewhere, and it’s usually…down. Through lights, along walls, etc. The other note I’ll add as a Nest Thermostat owner is that many of these new “smart” thermostats are able to tell when no one’s home (no movement detected). When that happens, the thermostat will allow the temperature to fall to your preset “Away” temperature. In a friend’s case recently, that turned out to be 12 which could turn into a problem…so be mindful of that setting among other things.

Andy Lockhart – contributed that note about variable-rate vs fixed-rate mortgages and other asides. The biggest news though was that they were taking off to Vancouver for a celebration of life for a cousin, then off Phoenix. While exploring points south, he’s planning to head out to Asheville North Carolina to hang out with fellow wood artisans.

Matt Dart – plenty of attention paid to economy talk, development and construction. The basic message for Calgary and Alberta was “good not great.” 2% growth likely for Alberta. 2021 is forecast to be better.  

Matt added to the furnace conversation by mentioning that ATCO is selling an appliance that is half furnace half water heater. I couldn’t find it on the ATCO site but did find this article for anyone who’s curious enough to go down their own Google rabbit hole: https://www.probuilder.com/hvac-water-heater-systems-are-winning-combination.

For the record, Matt noted the impeachment trial started. This resonated with Matt and anyone else with an eye on politics. The 2016 election was divisive for America, but on the micro-level, it also divided families like Matt’s. In the runup to the Trump watershed, Matt discussed his family being more or less half MAGA and half anyone else. The world will watch. McConnell will haunt dreams.

Tony Fisher – countered *that* real estate news with a more positive take noting that at least in one source, real estate (construction, development etc) were 22 points up from last year.

Then Tony shared a sports note that you may have missed – about the big cheating scandal involving World Series winners the Houston Astros. Crazy stuff, AND they’ve been allowed to keep the championship despite all the evidence. Here’s a [retty detailed piece on the story from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/15/opinions/houston-astros-cheating-scandal-downey/index.html.

Andy and Ross 2nd round – Andy mentioned that for all of the economic data we have, one of his favourite business writers, Kevin Carmichael has a great piece talking about how we’re completely blind to the growth being powered by the digital economy. That piece is here: https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/oil-remains-a-pillar-of-canadas-economy-but-its-the-digital-economy-thats-driving-growth?video_autoplay=true. I found that on a page listing a clutch of great pieces written by Carmichael. That page is here: https://business.financialpost.com/author/kcarmichaelpostmedia. The upshot is that the economy is likely “better than it seems” at first blush.

To THAT, Ross chimed in with a powerful caveat, citing Amazon in particular. Amazon pays no taxes, and makes NO contribution to local or regional economies other than the one they live in in the US. No purchases made through Amazon benefit the local, regional or national economy they’re made FROM . Those things are all repatriated back to the US.

So, Amazon follows the Walmart formula. They set up shop, hollow out local business and then leave. The effects are foreseeable: no local options left and at the mercy of a giant monopoly. Ross mentioned the Land of Giants podcast as a great listen. It’s all about the rise of the big tech companies – but Amazon is its focus right now and episode titles include: “When Amazon Leaves Your Town”, “I Love Amazon. Let’s Break It Up”, “Why You’ll Never Quit Amazon Prime”. The link so you can take a listen and subscribe easily is: https://pod.link/1465767420.

Incidentally, Amazon paid NO tax on 11.2 BILLION dollars in profit in 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/02/16/amazon-paid-no-federal-taxes-billion-profits-last-year/.

Dan Kennelly chimed in on that theme of external suppliers citing as an example the new Enmax plant on the east edge of town. It was almost completely built outside of Canada and imported to be “assembled” here. These external companies that win bids aren’t forced to use Canadian suppliers; there’s no protection of any kind in these big bids for Canadian fabricators, etc.

Other 2nd round wisdom : Check your tire pressure on a warm car and tire indoors. Valves get stuck out in this cold and you might find yourself with a valve stuck open as you try to fill your tires. Also, be careful measuring – it won’t be accurate outside. 

Sean Baylis wasn’t there – but had sent out a great email blast talking about an upcoming event that many Birds have attended in the past. Here’s the text from the email:

To close things out this week – wisdom up in lights: