Early Birds, September 22, 2022

Early Birds, September 22, 2022

Dwayne Vinck – Recently out in the Shuswap which was great and also very pretty. Tip from Dwayne: shoulder season is something to take advantage of

Business is good – a deal that’s been worked on for almost a year will actually trigger something that Dwayne has counseled many of his clients on but never had to use himself: the lifetime capital gains exemption

Brett Bain – one longtime OSI client is a French school who present….interesting…negotiation tactics. As an example, they’ve been on a contract for years. Now they want to go month to month, and pay the same price. Apparently, the French are forgetting their past negotiations with the Scots, which didn’t always end well. 

Rob Beasant – was dealing with a real estate buyer from the Netherlands last week. He’s finding that international buyers in general, but certainly this person was motivated by the fact non-Canadians won’t be able to buy property after January 1st. At least not as simply.

Rob had found a property. It had been on the market for 140 days. His client made the highest offer – all in cash, and that’s when the wheels came off the purchase. They didn’t get it because the sellers had been burned in a prior all-cash deal. Rob had a plan B, but then that seller backed out of selling as well.

Another hurdle for international buyers is the difficulty in getting insurance as a non-Canadian.

As far as our local market is concerned, the market is moving and condos are up year over year. Detached is down year over year due to uncertainty.

Many of the leads Rob’s working won’t show any result for as long as 6 months out.

One a personal note, his wife and he decided now that they’re quasi-empty nesters, they would try pickle ball. After checking out various clubs and facilities, they ended up at Richmond Green. Super social and not quite as rule and protocol bound as some of the other places. I mean….it’s Pickle ball for Pete’s sake. 

In any case, Richmond Green has 570 members, AND they’re looking for sponsors. At which point Rob turned to look right at Ian Campbell, and with absolutely no irony said, “Audiology is right in the demo.” They’re all pretty affluent. The group uses FB advertising to the tune of about $5k a year among other things. If you or your company, or another business you know would like to sponsor the club, please let Rob know. They’re outdoor only at the moment and actively looking for indoor venue for the winter.

Ian Campbell - missed last week covering employee absences. Two are currently out with COVID, AND he’s also noticing an uptick in patient cancellations as a result of COVID cases.

Don Davis – will be gone this week on his second cruise – this time headed south from LA down through Baja and the sea of Cortez. 12 days though is NOT something Don is looking forward to. Just a bit too long. Especially on the heels of the Alaska cruise.

You might remember that years ago Don invested in BC’s Therapy vineyard. At the time, one of the perks was staying at the vineyard very cheaply to enjoy the product. No more. Right now, Therapy’s charging $450 a night, minimum 2 nights.

Sticking with the wine industry for a moment, Don mentioned his grandson is working with a terroir association and that this year stands out because the Terroir Hospitality Symposium is being held in Calgary. It’s another notch in Calgary’s diversification front since the symposium plays host to a community of chefs, drink experts, service staff, suppliers, restaurateurs, writers, educators and business leaders. It certainly can’t hurt to show some of these people from elsewhere in the country around. 

When he wasn’t contemplating that information or prepping for his next trip, Don was enjoying time in his backyard and struck up a chat with the folks doing some landscaping next door. He heard the same story we’re all hearing from every direction: they can’t actually hire anyone right now.

Reid Colbran – has transitioned to his new employer BFL Canada, an internationally known organization for Risk Management and Insurance. It seemed like a great career fit and learning opportunity. It’s more consultative in nature – and it’s sorta like death and taxes. Not going anywhere. You can learn more about BFL here https://www.bflcanada.ca. 

It’s a large and sophisticated client base and large commercial customers. Needless to say, the “Canada” at the end of the name implies that it’s a global team and it is, including international clients.

Sean Baylis – first up – the US interest rate hike in the US: 75 basis points. The market expected that, but they were also watching for the chairman’s guidance and it was in a word, dismal. He actually used the word “pain” more than once. The consensus is that the US may send the rate up another 75 basis points in November, and perhaps 25 points in December. 

The Fed in the US is willing to tolerate a recession to dampen inflation. Whether the electoral cycle is altered because of this, creating more uncertainty, has yet to be seen.

In any event, commodities like oil could be impacted negatively. 

We’ll have more objective guidance soon with earnings reports coming in this last quarter and they will be important for forecasting into next year.

There are buying opportunities in spades, but again the midterm US elections add a “roll of the dice” factor on both sides of the border. 

Parking places for money: floating rate loans. RBC Global asset management has ETFs they’re parking some money in on behalf of clients. One of them is here: https://www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/products/etfs/XFR/detail. 

Last word from Sean: short-term interest rates are high, long term are low. 

Matt Dart – the news about DeHavilland building a new plant just outside Calgary is prospective good news for John Controls.

Internally, JC is splitting up the Controls and Sales teams. Matt could be moving into a different role, which he voiced some excitement about.

No news on the Flames arena yet and his tone of voice relaying the news was shall we say, skeptical. 

Brad Pachal – thought he had a cold last week. Then it turns out the entire family tested positive for COVID after a family event.

Tip for anyone who requires any concrete slab work – particularly mud jacking and/or lifting: CSL did a great job with a couple of slabs in Brad’s driveway. He thought the job was very well done and quickly. They were in and out in a few hours. More information here: https://www.concretespecialistsltd.ca. 

Then Brad passed on a local success story – and forgive me if I omit or get a couple of the details wrong.

Brad’s son Troy is a cart racer and a few years ago he and a friend had the idea that they wanted to help support and develop local drivers. The goal is to nurture and move them onward and upward through the various racing circuits. 

They started a company called Alloy Racing. https://alloyracing.com/

A year in they promoted a driver named Kevin Foster, who at the time was 18 years old. 

Last year Kevin placed in the Canadian championships.

Out in Kelowna – the French Racing Association spotted Kevin. And he eventually placed 1st after trials for Formula 4.

This year he’ll be going to Portugal for the WORLD Championships.

400 to 500 drivers competing. He’ll be one of only TWO Canadian drivers.

There are other success stories, and you can read about a few of them here: https://alloyracing.com. 

They also have great photos on their Instagram feed for Kevin at this link: https://www.instagram.com/kevinfosterracing/. 

Jim Bladon – was back after an Arizona trip with Kim. He decided: NO work phones. He had a few days of “connection withdrawal” and worry, but like Chris Wright who’d done that accidentally years ago before going to Hawaii, he had a great trip partially because work wasn’t there the whole time.

Jim noted that inflation in the US is VERY visible. Where things used to be noticeably cheaper even accounting for the currency, right now, prices are the same as in Canada, BUT in USD.

Inflation was evident on everything: groceries, restaurants, everything.

Housing is also taking a hit. Jim noted that the American Quick Sales method is back in play. People are looking to “get outta Dodge.”

Another similarity to home: Help Wanted signs everywhere. There is huge staff turnover everywhere and one of the visible signs of that is the “Be patient with our staff” signs. Many businesses seem to be operating with the equivalent of a “New Driver” sign in the window.

It’s also very noticeable that MANY businesses didn’t make it through COVID.

Speaking of Arizona businesses barely getting by, Jim noted the new Phoenix Coyotes facility. 3200 seats – it’s basically a community arena - and they’ll play there for three years until the facility in Tempe is built. Jim’s impression is that NHL players will pull up in a bus -and wonder WTF?!

Andy Lockhart - took us out last week with a bit of show and tell. Andy had mentioned last week or the week before about a friend who was working to make a table out of an old Spruce Tree root. It was remarkable, including some of the resin work on it, which left stones included in the design visible, etc. Here’s 1 photo of Andy’s Exhibit a:

Then, for Exhibit B, Andy showed us some beautiful carved wood bowls, a couple of them Walnut that he’s been working on the last little while. He’s been messing around with partial burning of the surface to alter the look of the finished product. Not bad for “experimenting” as you can see – and that’s despite being about halfway through the process:

And that’s almost all folks….below are further pictures of Ian Campbell’s trailer to peruse and pass on to anyone you think might be interested.