Early Birds, September 21, 2023

Dan Kennelly - joked, "You should have seen the other guy!" after someone noticed the swelling on the side of his face. It's just part of regular dermatologist checks post-cancer. And just so you know, if you're interested in getting your own suspicious-looking "age marks," moles, or other spots of interest examined by a dermatologist, you DO require a referral from a GP.

On the work front, Trans Am Pipe employees who had the unfortunate task of visiting mills in Europe and other destinations on the continent will report on what they found. Some mills have shut down, and other locations have moved their millworks to other countries where supplies and labour are cheaper. More to come.

Mike Boyles - was in Kamloops and played some golf at Tobiano. After all the superlatives to describe the course came the one-word summary of the round: "humbling." You can see more information on Tobiano and other great Kamloops courses at this web page: https://blog.allsquaregolf.com/6-must-play-courses-kamloops-canada/

In work-related news, he's helped prepare two clients for bank meetings to convert high-interest financing into term loans. ATB and CIBC were the institutions. Among the benefits of the renegotiations for his clients is no personal guarantees required on the amounts. In one case a client secured a 250k operating line and 100k term line.

Tony Fisher - noted that the Bank of Montreal (BMO) is bailing out of the car loan business. It amounted to 3.7 % of their portfolio, but they've taken haircuts on many of those loans in the past few years.

Dwayne Vinck - spoke about recent CEBA announcements that create the illusion of a benevolent government providing an extended repayment deadline with forgiveness. It essentially amounts to smoke and mirrors, and the devil in the details is important.

The summary:

Repayment Deadline Extension:

Previously, CEBA loan holders had until December 31, 2023, to repay their loans in order to qualify for partial loan forgiveness of up to 33 percent.

The government noted that businesses will be busy on December 31, so they extended this deadline to January 18, 2024. The 2.5-week extension may make a difference for some businesses who are waiting to collect December invoices or business owners who are finishing Christmas vacations. For most business owners who intend to repay their full CEBA balance by December 31, it will make no difference at all.

As you'll recall the initial deadline for repayment was December 31, 2022, was extended by 1-year, and now a further 2.5 weeks.

Refinancing Extension:

For CEBA loan holders who initiate a refinancing application with the financial institution that provided their CEBA loan by January 18, 2024, the repayment deadline to qualify for partial loan forgiveness has been extended to March 28, 2024.

This extension provides more businesses and not-for-profits with additional time (nearly 3 extra months) to hear back from their financial institutions regarding their refinancing applications.

IMPORTANT NOTE: If you intend to refinance your CEBA loan, make sure you initiate the refinancing application on or before January 18, 2024, at the financial institution you received the CEBA loan from to receive forgiveness (for refinancing loans secured before March 28).

If you intend to apply for a CEBA refinancing loan through a different financial institution than the one that you received the CEBA loan from (shopping for better interest rates?), you should ensure that this loan is in place and your CEBA loan is paid off on or before the January 18, 2024 deadline to ensure your business qualifies for the forgiveness.

Joel Shapiro - has had a hell of a summer and early fall. There was a lot of family visiting and family business this summer that kept him from Birds, but also illness (his and others), a broken finger, and the icing on the cake: kidney stones. What's the old adage? "What doesn't kill you….."

He's been involved in evolving and creating a bigger marketing push for his business Advanture Consulting. 

One of the many gratifying things that keeps the lights on in his business is his work with CPAs across the country. Those workshops are continuing into the fall and early winter.

Joel again came armed with a handout - this time on leadership and Building Leaders. I scanned the handout - and you'll note in the that the document didn't *quite* make it out of breakfast "unscathed. Not sure what the small stain is near the bottom of the document. Probably best not to dwell on it. The document does include a few gems and is worth a look. The link to download it is at the bottom of the page.

Brad Pachal - working with Dave Hicks again this week. What was left to resolve about their work last week was to see who got the short straw and the work in the attic.

Brad gave us a "did you know?" Moment when talking about a project involving the restoration of a 1920's dining room chair (specifically, 1927). 

He explained that the chair was assembled using something called hide glue. 

Hide glue has been holding wood together for more than 5,000 years! It hasn't changed much; the formula still involves collagen from cattle hides. The beauty of hide glue is that when you need to take something delicate apart, only a little heat and moisture is required. From there, you simply pull the pieces apart, perform your repairs, and use hide glue to put it all back together. Sounds like a certain nursery rhyme with kings' horses and kings' men wouldn't have existed if they'd known about this stuff. Hide glue is still available at Lee Valley. 

There's also a terrific web page that supplemented the knowledge that Brad gave us at Birds here: https://www.woodmagazine.com/wood-supplies/glues-adhesives/the-hot-dish-on-hide-glue. Don't get stuck in the rabbit hole. If you do, apply heat and moisture....

Jim Bladon - continued his How-does-one-man-do-this-many-things-and-not-use-a-clone show. Among other things, he attended an event at the Canadian Aviation Hall of Fame with Chris Hadfield as a speaker featuring a vintage aviation fly-by.

When he wasn't there, or attending rotary events, or the World Petroleum Congress, or at Aspen Crossing exploring the Terror Train and the Polar Express, he was dealing with the merger between the Servus and Connect First credit unions. Servus successfully completed their vote with 85% voting in favour, BUT the tech cratered during the Connect First vote. Jim was dealing with text messages as the Birds proceeded and was headed out to calls about possible solutions after Birds.

Regarding Aspen crossing, Jim said it was a good family outing, with highlights being the Terror Train, and Polar Express. Book online here: https://www.aspencrossing.com. 

Don Davis - found it interesting that Dollar General in the US has not done as well as Dollarama in Canada. Don made that comment in Sean's general direction, to which Sean confirmed that RBC likes Costco better than Dollar General as an investment in the US AND that RBC holds a lot of Dollarama.

Don then went on to talk about Dave Reid's son, who runs a boat storage business out in Invermere.

As part of the business, he also rents out party boats. A group rented one last week. At one point, a guy dove into the water to retrieve a hat that got blown off the boat. He passed away. Don didn't derive a tip of that, but the old lifeguard in me has one: look before you leap! Especially when you're jumping off a party boat in a lake in the dark.

Sean Baylis - picked up from there with news that markets are not liking what they heard from Jerome Powell. He described the current pause on US interest rate hikes as a "hawkish pause.". There may be more coming if the central banks aren't happy with where inflation is at. They're still nominally targeting 2% and may want to put one more nail in the coffin of inflation. An upshot of all this in Canada is that RBC anticipates a recession.

There's a lot of pressure to come on consumers.

A couple of other market notes: Oil producers (Saudis and Russia) are still tightening supply to keep prices high.

Then…. it's a good time to be defensive in portfolios while waiting for rate cuts. It'll be a good time to be an investor when rate cuts go ahead. Stocks with healthy dividends and bonds are a good place to park money while you wait.

Sean had surgery two Fridays ago to address an infection that had plagued him a good chunk of the summer. The surgery went well, but he's still moving slowly.

A final bit of news was also personal: Sean's son was made the Notre Dame hockey team captain in Wilcox, Saskatchewan. It's an outstanding way for him to finish his school hockey career.

Jim Bladon - resident superfan of all things hockey (except for maybe the IPCC hockey stick graph on climate change), noted that there are a lot of former captains in the Hall of Fame

Andy Lockhart - was not jumping up and down exactly, but he was enjoying his first week of this golf season with FOUR games. 

He's been paired with some interesting folks when some of his regulars missed games this year. That included one particularly mournful character: a pony-tail-trailing-earbud-wearing BMW-driving-asshat who took four practice swings (with four accompanying divots each time) and who would also laser e-v-e-r-y long shot. We didn't hear if that walking, talking poster-child defining "first world problem" made it to the 18th. 

Matt Dart - opened with an item to file under "That's interesting." Ai can now identify gender via iris scan "assumed at birth."

Then work - and NEW work. Matt is no longer at Johnson Controls but is instead with the Master Group. So far, Matt is impressed, and it sounds like with a capital "I." Master just flew all the new employees (and perhaps more) to Calgary for a meeting. They treated everyone really well. They delivered offers last week, and among the many terrific pieces of the offers is that since Master would like all the JC people to start October 2, which would void their severance payout from Johnson (and JC knew that!), Master offered to pay out what they would miss in severance for starting early. Master has been voted as one of Canada's best-managed companies. If you'd like a quick look under the hood at Matt's new place of work, visit this link: https://www.master.ca/professional/

Ian Campbell - took a well-deserved rest away from friggin' insurance company conversations related to the fire at their Sunterra West location. 

He spent the last couple of weeks in Europe. The trip was actually planned three years ago, but you know…COVID. It's a bunch of university rugby buddies. Ian's wife Jo-Ann's brother had a condo in Mallorca. It was 5-star fantastic for five days.

The condo's on the NW part of the island, in Betlem (town name). 

Here's a photo: